The recent custom-made furniture faucets generally have obvious stock price corrections. We judge mainly for two reasons: first, according to According to grassroots research, the overall situation of the industry is worse than originally expected, and the growth forecast for the second quarter is continuously lowered. Second, under the expectation of RMB depreciation, the proportion of foreign holdings is decreasing.
Downstream furniture industry due to various reasons such as real estate regulation and the rise of the whole equipment model There has been a decline in passenger flow and an increase in sales pressure. The impact of the whole assembly on the custom furniture company is mainly reflected in the product category system and the strong delivery construction capability, but it also stimulates the custom furniture company to accelerate the pace and pace of the attempt to the whole assembly field and accelerate the penetration rate. Trying to make a double-edged sword for the impact of the whole decoration on the custom furniture company, it needs to be treated dialectically.
1, why the industry suddenly hits the winter
With the influence of real estate regulation and control, the growth of the furniture industry in the third quarter of last year has declined. After the vigorous promotion of “Golden September and Silver 10”, it has recovered in the fourth quarter of last year, although it is not as good as the first half of last year. It’s a good time, but the good ones have stopped the signs of slowing down.
Unexpectedly, since 2018, feedback from terminal grassroots and listed companies has been The drop in passenger flow is obvious, and the sales pressure is far better than that in the third and fourth quarters of last year. For the furniture industry, this spring and summer seems to be even colder than last autumn and winter.
We have been thinking about what has changed in the industry from the second half of last year to the first half of this year. As a result, the environment has become more and more serious. Our basic conclusion is that the decline in the growth rate of real estate sales area and the increase in the penetration rate of hardcover houses have an impact. However, the branching caused by the continuous influx of external participants represented by the whole assembly is the main margin. Changes, it is natural to suggest focusing on the subject of the track advantage.
First, part of the competitive landscape has increased, not to say price wars or The intensification of marketing, but the rapid rise of the assembly industry and accelerated growth.
Entering 2018, in the context of the overall slowdown in real estate growth, The overall demand for home improvement has also declined. Through a large number of industry chain research visits, the phenomenon we have seen is a very obvious differentiation in the field of home improvement: on the one hand, many traditional home improvement companies that have been operating for more than 10 years have been poorly managed. The capital chain is broken and the boss is running.
On the other hand, some of the new companies with new business models are fast against the trend Development, continuous new attempts and explorations in the industry, accelerate the channel layout, gradually move from the regional market to the country, and continue to evolve in the direction of multi-category and multi-brand cross-border integration.
We found that the common development of the well-developed company is to effectively solve the traditional home improvement The company has done a little painful point. In the early stage of development, it laid a solid foundation in terms of product system, financial management, and informationization level, and continuously optimized iteration in the right direction, although it seems that the time cost and capital of the previous investment. The cost is much larger than that of traditional home improvement companies. With the continuous increase in income scale, such assembly companies will gradually move from the investment period to the harvest period, and promote the industry’s extensive development model to evolve toward a more standardized system operation model.
The impact of the whole company on the custom furniture company is mainly reflected in the whole product system. And strong delivery and construction capabilities. First of all, from the perspective of product system, the whole company can cover a variety of matching of main and auxiliary materials and soft-packed products. The product series have different styles to fully meet the individual needs of consumers. At present, it can compete with the whole equipment from SKU. The custom brand has only a few custom leading companies.
Secondly, as the product continues to iteratively upgrade andWith the cooperation of more high-quality brands, the inherent negative impression of consumers on the “coarse manufacturing” of the whole product is gradually eliminated. The packaged products impact the customized brand with a strong cost performance and a more comprehensive product system.
Finally, the strong delivery of construction capabilities is a prominent competitive advantage for the company. Fully meet the needs of consumers to reduce the cost of decoration time, one-stop service.
The brand influence of custom furniture is an insurmountable barrier for the whole company in the short term. Leading companies have gradually extended to the field of consolidation. At present, most of the packaging companies are in the early stage of development, and the duration of the period is less than 5 years. Compared with the brand influence and consumer reputation accumulated by the customized enterprises in the 20 years of the industry, there is still a gap that is difficult to catch up in the short term. .
“Brand influence” seems illusory and difficult to quantify, but this is custom Enterprises have entered the field of weapons in the field of consolidation. In the decoration process, the home improvement company is the first to contact the customer, which is an important entrance to the entire home improvement chain. In the current development status of “flow is king”, the good feedback and positive response of the European-style house in the development of home improvement cooperation customers exceeded expectations, which is the best interpretation of “brand influence”. With the in-depth cooperation between the two parties, the customized brand after the installation and delivery will open up a broader space in the field of consolidation.
We believe that the impact of the whole set on the custom market is a double-edged sword On the one hand, it can make custom brands feel the further deterioration of the competitive environment, and even have short-term performance pressure; on the other hand, we must also see the more positive impact they bring, namely “incentives” and “ Cultivating” – Incentives the custom furniture company to accelerate the pace and pace of the attempt to the whole assembly field, through the whole series of products to cultivate consumers’ custom furniture consumption habits, accelerate the penetration rate. Customized companies and self-contained companies are entering their respective fields in various ways. Integration and cooperation are effective ways to resolve competition.
In terms of the competitive landscape of the industry, competition is intensifying, and finished products are constantly pouring in Local large and medium-sized brands have grown rapidly. These have been clearly seen since the second half of last year, and there is no obvious change in the first half of this year.
Second, furniture as a post-real estate industry, the real estate industry has a total impact on it It is impossible to avoid, here are three aspects, real estate sales, hardcover rooms and real estate sales ten years ago.
Since the third quarter of 2016, the first-line and some second-tier real estate industries gradually increased regulation The sales area of commercial housing in first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai even fell by nearly 50% (in 2017, Beijing fell 47.56% and Shanghai fell 33.58%). The lagging effect of real estate on the furniture industry has been reflected in the third quarter of last year. However, from the perspective of changes in real estate data, this part has not deteriorated further in the first half of this year. It is expected that the marginal changes in the second half will not be obvious. Variety. Here, by the way, the change of the shed reform policy in mid-June, as long as the goal of the total number of sheds is unchanged, whether it is monetized or physical resettlement, it will generate purchase demand for downstream furniture products, and the actual impact is not large. .
For the hardcover housing industry, 2017 is a year of rapid growth. From the perspective of the delivery room, the proportion of hardcover houses has reached 20%, which is 5pct higher than that of 2016. If these commercial houses are sold in the form of rough houses, they will become part of the furniture industry (cabinet, ceramic tiles, etc.) from the fourth quarter of last year to the first half of this year. The main purchaser of the floor, etc.). The increase in the proportion of hardcover houses to the furniture retail in the first half of 2018 is more than the second half of 2017. Here we focus on the cabinet industry. Our previous judgment on the industry is that the penetration rate of cabinets is about 60%. In 2017, the improvement of hardcover accounted for 5pct is mainly the big real estate developers in first- and second-tier cities. The impact on the cabinet industry is still Very obvious.
Real estate discussed two negative contributions, which also add a positive impact Although it is impossible to quantify, due to the gradual improvement of real estate sales, the total number of stocks is also increasing, and the demand for renewal is indeed increasing. Since 1999, the sales area of real estate has increased year by year, except for a significant decline during 2008, and the remaining years have maintained steady growth. During the period of 2008~2009, the absolute sales area of commercial housingThe value has increased significantly. Considering the 10~15 year re-decoration cycle, the demand for home purchases in this period is expected to be transformed into re-decoration demand in recent years. We expect that the demand for replacement and replacement of stocks will increase from this year.
Again, is the impact of an apparent number, Ou Pai Home, Sofia, Furniture companies such as Gujia Home and Zhibang Co., Ltd. were the all-time highs in the second quarter of last year. The high base affected the apparent growth rate in the second quarter of this year, and the third quarter of 2017 was the low point of growth of most furniture companies. Part of the impact will gradually weaken.
2, market analysis
The recent custom-made furniture faucets generally have obvious stock price corrections. We judge mainly for two reasons: First, according to grassroots research, the overall situation of the industry is worse than originally expected, and the growth forecast for the second quarter is continuously lowered. Second, under the expectation of RMB depreciation, the proportion of foreign holdings is decreasing.
3, Investment Advice
Learn the layout opportunities, layout custom faucets, and finished furniture areas that are relatively small in these factors. Based on the previous analysis, it is recommended to focus on two main lines: First, the custom faucet with layout in the field of consolidation can enjoy the rapid growth of the whole industry and thus the growth of traditional channels. The past valuation of such targets is difficult to start. The recent adjustments provide opportunities; the second is the finished furniture sector represented by soft furniture, which is relatively less affected by the intensive housing, equipment and industry competition.
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